Collision Risk with Asteroid 2024 YR4 Has Doubled in Recent Days

NASA and ESA report that the likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth has doubled in just a few days.

The Rising Celestial Threat of Asteroid 2024 YR4

By late 2024, the Atlas system had detected a new asteroid, named 2024 YR4. Recent data indicates an increasing likelihood of this asteroid being on a collision course with Earth.

Collision Risks Have Doubled

Two weeks ago, NASA experts calculated the risk of this sizable asteroid striking Earth on December 22, 2032, at 1.14%. This estimate has recently been adjusted to 2.2%. Meanwhile, the European Space Agency (ESA) assesses the risk at one in 50.

Still Over 97% Chance of Avoiding Impact

However, according to NASA, this also means there is a more than 97% chance that the asteroid will not hit us. It is vital to continue monitoring 2024 YR4 to more accurately study its trajectory and determine any potential threat to Earth.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, no need to panic yet

Details on Asteroid 2024 YR4

According to NASA’s brightness measurements, this “Earth-crosser” has a size ranging between 40 and 90 meters. As of January 31, 2025, it was about 48 million kilometers away from us. It is currently moving away but will return in December 2028, posing no threat to Earth at that time.

Possible Impact in 2032, 2039, 2047…

Should 2024 YR4 be on an impact trajectory, it would strike at a speed of 17 km/s along a “risk corridor” stretching from the Eastern Pacific Ocean to South Asia. Further possible collisions are also anticipated for December 23, 2039, and two more on December 22, 2047.

Ranked at level 3 on the Turin Scale, 2024 YR4 poses a significant threat. However, there is no cause for panic: scientists continue to refine their predictions and rely on the proven Dart program during test phases.