Can Ukraine Withstand Russia Without Trump and U.S. Support?

Without the crucial support of Donald Trump and the United States, is Ukraine on the verge of falling to Russia in their ongoing conflict?

American Aid Freeze to Ukraine

On March 3, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump declared a potentially destabilizing move for Ukraine—the freezing of American aid to the nation.

A Fleeting Victory

Just a day earlier, Ukraine experienced a brief moment of triumph when its forces recaptured Toretsk, an eastern town, from Russian control. Although short-lived, this victory was acknowledged by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the French Ministry of Armed Forces.

Long-term Consequences

The halt in U.S. assistance could spell severe long-term consequences for Ukraine. Florent Parmentier from Sciences Po’s Cevipof reminded that Ukraine has previously navigated similar challenges, referring to past delayed and insufficient U.S. aid.

While immediate effects might not be evident, the long-term outlook for Ukraine could deteriorate, especially if the mineral exploitation agreement demanded by Trump in exchange for aid fails to materialize.

Morale and Materiel: Two Critical Factors

The morale of both troops and civilians, already weakened by three years of conflict and the loss of tens of thousands, is crucial. Additionally, the military equipment supplied by the U.S., including tanks, armored vehicles, missiles, and howitzers, plays a vital role on the battlefield.

In summary, the suspension of American aid could weaken Ukraine in the long run, potentially tipping the scales in Russia’s favor in the ongoing conflict.