NASA Warns of Increased Collision Risk Between Asteroid YR4 and the Moon

NASA's latest estimates indicate that asteroid YR4 is now more likely to collide with the Moon than previously thought.

A Cosmic Threat Neutralized

The James Webb Telescope has expanded our understanding of the asteroid 2024 YR4, which raised concerns when it was discovered in December 2024.

Initially, NASA calculated a more than 3% chance of the asteroid impacting Earth—a significant risk for a collision predicted in 2032.

A Giant Leap in Astronomical Observation

Since then, scientists have refined their predictions. Recent data suggests the asteroid will miss Earth, although a collision with the Moon, just 300,000 km away, is still possible.

Detailed insights about 2024 YR4 were acquired through observations by the James Webb Space Telescope. According to Andy Rivkin of Johns Hopkins University, the asteroid is 60 meters tall, the height of a 15-story building.

When Probabilities Adjust

NASA recently updated the data on 2024 YR4. The likelihood of it striking the Moon has slightly increased, from 1.7% at the end of February to 3.8% in early April. However, there is still a 96.2% chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon, according to NASA.

Impact on the Moon: What Consequences?

If a collision occurs, what would be the consequences for Earth? According to Gilles Dawidowicz of the Société Astronomique de France, the impact would cause a small explosion, potentially visible from Earth.

This would only be possible if the impact occurs on the Moon’s visible side during the night. Otherwise, NASA’s DART mission is ready to deflect the space rock if needed.